Sony Stares Into the Abyss

[ECM]

Nintendo passes them--again--in market cap[footnote:1]Almost assuredly because China lifted its console ban, of which Nintendo is the primary beneficiary due to much cheaper hardware than their competitors.[/footnote]:



For those not keeping score, I wrote a ways back that SONY is basically a trainwreck and is shedding divisions--and size--at an alarming rate in a bid to remain extant and, well, things aren't going exactly swimmingly.

They still *need* to get rid of several of their divisions at a faster clip or the gangrene is going to kill the handful of businesses that have some potential at making some money; TVs, music, movies, and computers have to go, period. The only divisions SONY should be keeping are their optics and game divisions but, really, at this point it would make more sense to spin off the game arm into its own concern.[footnote:2]I'll be the first to admit they can't do this since it's one of only two (maybe three) bright spots in the company's fortunes, and dumping it would basically be like kicking the crutch out from under a brain-damaged amputee--their ability to raise money at all would vanish--but better that than having it destroyed in a bankruptcy proceeding which is where SONY still appears to be headed in the next 12-18 months.[/footnote]

(The gaming biz, though PS4 is doing great, is losing money hand-over-fist, and won't, in and of itself, be profitable for years.)

[ECM]

Oh, and: SONY DOOMED.

(Just don't expect to hear this sort of reality from the gaming media, who has studiously ignored[footnote:1]Probably less due to maliciousness and more due to incompetence. Maybe.[/footnote]SONY's parlous financial condition since at least the mid-00s[footnote:2]Yes, SONY has been taking on water for a very long time but, like all mighty empires, their ultimate demise is generally a protracted, ugly, affair, see: Rome, Ancient; Greece, Ancient; the Ottoman Empire; and, as we're living it, the United States.[/footnote], while screaming that Nintendo--a company with ~11-billion in cash on hand--is DOOMED.)

[ECM]

And an update:

Sony Corp. (6758) had its credit rating cut to junk by Moody’s Investors Service as Japan’s biggest television maker struggles to capture consumer demand for smartphones and tablet computers.

The rating was lowered to Ba1, one level below investment grade, from Baa3 and the outlook is stable, Moody’s said in an e-mailed statement yesterday. Sony is also rated junk at Fitch Ratings, while Standard & Poor’s has the company on the second-lowest investment grade.

Sony, which posted a surprise loss in the September quarter, is battling shrinking demand for TVs and personal computers as consumers switch to mobile devices produced by Apple Inc. and Samsung Electronics Co. (005930) Chief Executive Officer Kazuo Hirai is trying to turn around earnings at the Tokyo-based company by wringing benefits out of holdings from consumer electronics to mobile phones and entertainment.

LOL, "surprise loss"?? To whom?? People that get wined and dined by Sony execs to soft peddle the bad news??

(But guess who isn't rated as junk by *all* the major rating firms, but yet is considered DOOMED by the gaming media at every turn?)

It's a pretty safe bet that Sony's earnings are going to be very, very bad if even Moody's was finally forced to concede reality.

P.S No, PS4 cannot "save them", because PS4 will be selling at a loss for the next 2-years and because the PS business is not *remotely* healthy (read: big) enough, anymore, to carry the rest of the company.

[Borsalio]

It's okay, Amazing Spider-man 2 will solve all those money problems this summer. The $4 million they're spending to advertise it during the Super Bowl will be well-spent.

[ECM]

^I am pretty much positive that that exact like of 'reasoning' is being used by fans of Columbia Pictures in the same, non-ironic, way PlayStation fans talk about the PS4 saving Sony.

(Frankly, Columbia being sold off would be the best thing that could happen to Spiderman, based on pretty much every Spidey movie to date.)

[arcadehero]

"All this means is that Nintendo had better put Mario on smartphones ASAP if they wish to remain relevant" - Something Michael Pachter, video game expert extraordinaire might say

Serious question - what is worth spending $400+ on for the PS4 right now? Rezogun? Remote play on Vita? I really am grasping to see what it is aside from promises of games to come. (Same can apply to the Xbone, I still don't know why I should buy either based on the promises; the only thing I've seen for PS4 that looks interesting is Deep down which comes in March)

[Borsalio]

The PS4's purely the promise of games to come right now. Resogun's certainly worth playing if you have the system, and stuff like Don't Starve and Outlast is nice if you haven't played them on PC already, but Killzone and Knack isn't going to sell systems. Things might change when Infamous and Driveclub come out, and we might get lucky and see Sega bring Yakuza Isshin over here (HA), but we're still in waiting mode now.

I bought it because I knew the games would come, and I'm the sort of dope who buys hardware at launch, but I wouldn't recommend it just yet. If the PS4 ends up like the PS1, PS2, PS3, PSP, and Vita eventually did, we'll all probably have reason to buy one, but that's still a year or so off at best.

[ECM]

I guess it's worth noting, now, that Iwata actually stated they're at least considering M&As but, again, I have to don my killjoy hate and state that, as a biz strategy, M&As are almost always a poor way to go about growing a business.

Meanwhile, in fanboy land:

YES! BUY CAPCOM SEGA NAMCO ARC and SNK (the latter mainly for their catalog)! MAKE THE FANBOYS SCREAM IN IMPOTENT RAGE! THE TEAR-REAPING WILL BE UNHEARD OF IN THE ANNALS OF INTERNET BUTTHURT FURY!

But yeah, probably not the best idea to build marketshare, though the PR/marketing value, even at the almost assured loss, might be worth the investments.

[Borsalio]

On the M&A, I actually saw some speculation that they might be looking more at merchandising companies or fitness/quality of life companies (to fit that 'new pillar' they talked about making) as opposed to video game companies. I actually think that makes more sense. There's not enough value in shelling out for a Sega or Capcom, even with all the IP. And I don't think there's a lot of smaller devs out there worth grabbing, like when they picked up Monolith.

The wisest thing to do in that area would probably be acquiring Next Level Games and/or Monster Games, and getting some more Western friendly games out there. Both those companies are already working exclusively with Nintendo anyway, putting some more cash into them probably makes them two project studios instead of one.

[ECM]

I had the Western dev convo w/ Roho a ways back, and we both concluded that picking up a mid-range dev with AAA experience--that may or may not sound like inhuman shed--would be a good idea.

[ECM]

Just call me prescient:

Sony Corp., a struggling electronics maker trying to regain its once stalwart status, is undertaking a major restructuring that includes the sale of its PC division, a spinoff of its TV business and layoffs of thousands of employees.

The Japanese tech giant said Thursday that it had decided to shed its Vaio personal computer brand after a "comprehensive analysis of factors, including the drastic changes in the global PC industry."

It is in talks to sell Vaio to Japan Industrial Partners Inc., a Japanese investment fund.

The sale of Vaio is intended to help Sony better grow its mobile electronics business, which going forward would focus more on smartphones and tablets, the company said.

Some analysts were surprised by the decision to sell the PC unit. Stephen Baker, vice president of industry analysis at market research firm NPD Group, said Sony had not been unsuccessful in the PC business, especially recently, "which makes this more puzzling."

"We find this decision to be particularly troubling, and one that is likely, ultimately, at least in the U.S., to be decidedly unsuccessful," Baker wrote in a blog post.

"...comprehensive analysis of factors, including the drastic changes in the global PC industry."

Translation: this business has no future and we're broke, so we're selling now while we can still get some pocket change for it, unlike TVs, which we were too blinkered to jettison 7-years ago and are now worth fuck and all.

Also, when you read that analysts find this move "surprising" and, yet, lil' old me, with no MBA and no business sense has been going on about this for some time, just shows you there is something very, very wrong with business analysis since a freaking CHIMPANZEE (see: me) could see this move coming from a million miles away.

(Why it's not surprising, extended edition: SONY sells very high-end PC equipment in a. a collapsing global economy, b. a business that has been eaten alive by the low-end commoditization of such products (see: notebooks), and c. smartphones and tablets are devouring what's left and the market for those products has no meaningful future. Also, they're super mega broke. Still.)

Oh, and yeah: NINTENDO DOOMED^TM. Somehow.

[arcadehero]

Not the best article but the news shows little in terms of a silver lining for Sony. I guess the PS4 would be it at this point

blog.newegg.com/sony-unloads-9-5-million-shares-square-enix-future-company-uncertain/

[ECM]

I'm pretty sure the posts on this thread show there is no silver lining for Sony.

[ECM]

Down, down, down:

Sony Corp. (6758), the maker of Xperia smartphones and PlayStation consoles, cut its earnings for the third time in a year as Chief Executive Officer Kazuo Hirai’s turnaround founders amid slumping consumer electronics sales.

Sony posted a net loss of 130 billion yen ($1.3 billion) in the 12 months ended March, the Tokyo-based company said in preliminary earnings reported today. That compares with a February loss projection of 110 billion yen, which was itself a reduction from a revised October forecast for profit of 30 billion yen.

The wider loss is a setback to Hirai’s plan to revive the fortunes of the Japan technology icon with new game consoles, smartphones and cost cuts. While the PlayStation 4 has won sales, Sony is struggling to come up with other hits as demand for traditional products like televisions, cameras and personal computers decline.

“There is no stop to their downward revision of earnings,” said Mitsushige Akino, chief fund manager at Ichiyoshi Investment Management Co. “They can’t get into a growth stage, and it’s difficult to recover. Unless they announce sales of the TV business, the market won’t think Sony is serious.”

Japanese businesses have a nasty, nasty habit of vastly overstating earnings targets--it's actually a wonder anyone will give Sony money at all anymore, even at usurious rates, given that Kaz et al (or maybe their new CFO, who is just as bad as the old CFO) can't be straight with the market.

(But being straight, of course, would require some very, very ugly decisions involving a chainsaw and a lack of anesthetic, something Kaz, clearly, has no interest in, even if it's the only way to cut out the gangrene that has set in.)

Also: Sony (still) doomed.

[ECM]

The key points from today:

*1.3 billion loss, down from a projected 300-mil profit. (Sales were, however, up 14% year-on-year.)
*Year-on-year sales of console hardware down ~2-million units (yes, down).
*Year-on-year sales of portable hardware down ~3-million units (the Vita is the end of Sony dedicated portables).
*Blu-ray, one time savior of Sony, is imploding at a much faster clip than anticipated, widening losses.

What's next?

*Fast exit from markets that are killing Sony, like finishing off jettisoning PC, and TVs are simply going to be shut down because they'll never find a buyer (unless that buyer is paying fire sale prices, which is the same thing), among other businesses that are nothing more than a drag on profits, which is just about anything of note that isn't gaming. (And gaming is only in the sense that it's a future profit center--right now it's a drag, too, as the PS4 replaces the PS3 as a profit-driver).
*I'm pretty much 100% certain the PS brand will *have to be* spun-off, if it's to survive the Sony implosion. Too much debt, too much money in interest payments to fund new debt (junk bond status +), tangible assets shrinking at the speed of light, etc.